Presidential Polls

David Traver · Posted: Tue Aug 05, 2008 08:14 pm Post subject: Presidential Polls

There is some ongoing interest in whether the Democrats will win the White House and save America

or

whether the Republicans will prevail and drive America off a cliff.

So, I thought it would be nice to start a separate string about polls This picks up where the prior string left off:

http://ssaconnect.com/component/option,com_forum/Itemid,0/page,viewtopic/t,6759/#22485

Here we go!

deltajudge · Joined: 05 Nov 2007 Posts: 560

I for one, am leery of polls. The latest Zogby shows McCain ahead of Obama by one point. The margin of error they use, makes this meaningless. If you rely on polls, Obama has taken a terrific hit, and is failing to gain any momentum, in spite of the overwhelming media coverage that has left McCain out there all alone. Meanwhile, he has been beating the bushes in the hustings while Obama basks in the limelight. Is Obama fatigue setting in?

Olan Barnes · Joined: 17 May 2004 Posts: 1910 Location: Michigan

From US News and World Report:

http://www.usnews.com/blogs/barone/2008/08/05/polls-show-the-race-between-obama-and-mccain-is-tightening.html

Olan Barnes · Joined: 17 May 2004 Posts: 1910 Location: Michigan

It has been a several months so here is the latest:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/

It is still early and there is no judgment yet as anything is just a snapshot and a state by state gives the all important electoral vote - but here is for what it worth.

Guest · Posted: Tue Aug 19, 2008 02:34 am Post subject:

You wonder about polls and public opinion and when you observe Obama's performance over the weekend. When you let a lightweight like McCain overwhelm you, what you gonna do? His poll numbers just ain't coming up. Not to worry McCain is going to screw up.

Olan Barnes · Joined: 17 May 2004 Posts: 1910 Location: Michigan

Well - Maybe this is what you are referring to?

http://www.comcast.net/articles/news-politics/20080820/POLITICS-USA-POLL-POLITICS-DC/

deltajudge · Joined: 05 Nov 2007 Posts: 560

Obama is a remarkable guy. He came out of nowhere, and that is where he is. It is unbelievable that all this hysteria surrounds him. Look at his record. Nothing there qualifies him to be the President of the most powerful and influential nation in the world. We probably have the least qualified candidates for the presidency in many years.8)

deltajudge · Joined: 05 Nov 2007 Posts: 560

If you believe in polls, which I don't, apparently people are listening to someone. I don't let other people make up my mind, I look at the person, and believe me, I have looked at Obama. Zogby has McCain leading among most likely voters by 5 points, which is basicallly a tie. Obama can't get a toehold. Maybe others are taking a closer look at him. 8)

David Traver · Posted: Thu Aug 21, 2008 03:01 pm Post subject:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/ (popular vote)
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/ (where the real race is)

Olan Barnes · Joined: 17 May 2004 Posts: 1910 Location: Michigan

Another e-mail I got:

Electoral College

Overview: While McCain has enjoyed something of a surge in recent days, our Electoral College analysis ultimately breaks down the same way it did one month ago: a one—state Obama victory. The battleground appears to be narrowing a bit.

While no states switch sides this month, we move Indiana more firmly into McCain's column, and Oregon more firmly into Obama's. Obama 273, McCain 268.

Indiana (11 Electoral Votes): Talk of a possible Obama win in the Hoosier State ought to start fading away soon, now that Obama has passed over Bayh. A recent Rasmussen survey showed the race for Indiana's 11 Electoral votes close, but that's a bit misleading. Obama's unfavorable ratings in this state are at 44%—and this is a state he spent considerable energy and time trying to win during the convention. The 14% undecided will break strongly for McCain. The campaigns might forget about this one by October. Solid Republican.

Oregon (7 EV): Early polls had shown Obama underperforming here, but no signs have emerged of a McCain renaissance. A Republican implosion in a competitive House race doesn't help matters, either. McCain can write off the West coast. Solid Democrat.

Virginia (13 EV): The race for Virginia's 13 Electoral votes is a fine example of how a simplistic reading of polls leads to an inflated impression of Obama's chances this fall.

Obama dominated the Democratic primary here, and recent polls show a statistical tie. The state is moving in a Democratic direction, and so Democrats have reason to be confident. But a statistical tie between Obama and McCain with 9% undecided (the result in the August 12 Rasmussen poll) is a McCain advantage. Throw in Obama's 46% unfavorable rating (McCain's is 36%) and you begin to see that this tie is not a tie.

McCain will have to work hard to win Virginia, and that's enough of a job, but it is not a swing state, properly speaking. In other words, Obama will likely carry Virginia only if he is winning the nation handily. Leaning Republican.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109834/Gallup-Daily-Bounce-Obama-Post-Biden-Tracking.aspx

Olan Barnes · Joined: 17 May 2004 Posts: 1910 Location: Michigan

Newest electoral polls:

http://news.yahoo.com/election/2008/dashboard

David Traver · Posted: Wed Sep 03, 2008 02:04 pm Post subject:

Senator Obama is now holding at 50%, which is the first time he has been in that range. It looks like the undecideds decided, which did not cut Senator McCain's numbers appreciably, but gave a push to Senator Obama.

There should be a big boost in Senator McCain's numbers as the nation celebrates yesterday's video presentation by President Bush at the Republican National Convention and the complete absence of Vice President Cheney. Also, there should be a lot of interest and a big bump as soon as Senator McCain's staff finishes vetting the VP choice and they decide if they will go forward with Gov. Palin pick a Democrat for the VP post.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html

Olan Barnes · Joined: 17 May 2004 Posts: 1910 Location: Michigan

Now McCain at 54% with his convention bounce - indeed an interesting horse race. The polls may not mean anything with the electoral vote map included but everything is in flux and smugness on any side is a prescription for losing.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

deltajudge · Joined: 05 Nov 2007 Posts: 560

8) As far as polls go, which I have given my opinion about, the swing states have the candidates basically tied. Obama is running out of gas. There is just so much you can say about hope and change with the attached oratory, but the questions now appear, what is the groundwork for hope and change?

Olan Barnes · Joined: 17 May 2004 Posts: 1910 Location: Michigan

Another electoral vote link and assorted polls:

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/

MikeWalters · Joined: 13 May 2004 Posts: 1388 Location: Cincinnati OH

As I suggested in another post, it looks like Senator McCain's "friends" in Congress have come close to deep-sixing any remaining chance he has of being elected: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

If you look at the electoral map, it's even scarier for McCain.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

I suppose Senator Obama could make some huge gaffe, or the Republicans could concoct a smear that actually works, but things are looking pretty grim for the G.O.P.

David Traver · Posted: Fri Oct 03, 2008 05:13 am Post subject:

I've noticed that in addition to the polls, Senator Obama is trading over 30 points higher than Senator McCain on http://www.intrade.com That's real people playing a real market with real money.

Also, there is almost no positive posting on http://digg.com/ and http://youtube.com regarding McCain. Quite the contrary, the highly ranked topics contain a high percentage of negative commentary about Senator McCain and his running mate. Check it out.

That's interesting to me because tonight when I went to the Obama campaign office to participate in the nightly phone banking before the debate, the majority of people I called were over 45 years old. There were only two on the call list under 30. I looked around the room at the other 20 or so volunteers talking on the phones and they were all over 35, some well into their 60s and 70s. On weekend door knocking canvases the youth and older participation is about even. We even have one nice lady who iis 75 years old who does the walking and doorbell ringing for two hours at a time.

The visits to http://digg.com/ and http://youtube.com will show anybody in a second that Obama has the youth vote locked up. What I have been seeing in my campaign work is that Senator Obama also is making significant inroads into the old timers too. This, by the way is in Waukesha County Wisconsin, which is by far the most conservative county in Wisconsin and likely the one of the most conservative in the USA. I used to think I was the only Democrat in Waukesha County. It may be that we are a majority now. That's a fascinating turn of events and in is a change that is easy to see since I started working as a volunteer for the campaign a couple of months ago. There is a massive shift to Obama here.

I have also noticed that people are beginning to take down their McCain yard signs. Not only are the "undecideds" dismissing McCain, the "decided" Republicans are opting not to vote this year. Also many former McCain supporters are coming over to Obama. I know that many are coming over to Obama because I meet or talk to 20 or so on the phone every week in my canvasing. The usual line is something like this "I voted for Bush twice and I'm not making that mistake again." When they volunteer and show up at the Obama phone banks I know that something really has changed.

It is a wonderful thing for America.

Insider (Ret) · Posted: Fri Oct 03, 2008 01:26 pm Post subject:

My wife's family back in Michigan is pretty solidly Republican, and has been for eons. But in a recent conversation with them, we learned that 3/4s are very likely to vote for Obama. And two days after that conversation, McCain pulled his money and staff out of Michigan, conceding 17 electoral votes to Sen. Obama. Even more telling, they moved the money/staff to Indiana. Indiana! If McCain has to spend resources in Indiana to hold it, he's in deep trouble.

David Traver · Posted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 04:21 pm Post subject:

This is a duplicate of a posting that I put up elsewhere on Connect. I just wanted to make sure that everybody knows about http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

Notice the use of regression analysis and the weighting of various polls based upon the prior accuracy of the polls and other factors such as cultural and geographical proximity to other polled states and the demographics of the state. This takes the liberal spin out of CNN polls and the conservative spin out of Fox polls, eg.

This week on Colbert, one of the partners running the site explained that even if the pollster, such as CNN or FOX is neutral to the best of its ability, the use of the pollster's name in the communication with the surveyed individual is enough to taint the results due to polarization of the electorate.

These guys started off handicapping sporting events. They a very interesting pair of super-nerds. Lovely stuff.

This is a good place to start the day for Democrats: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

Conservatives may find the final days of Republican press briefings from the White House to be a nice way to enjoy the morning cup of coffee: http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/briefings/

MikeWalters · Joined: 13 May 2004 Posts: 1388 Location: Cincinnati OH

Interesting data from polling in five States that allow early voting:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/obama-dominating-among-early-voters-in.html

Insider (Ret) · Posted: Thu Oct 16, 2008 01:34 pm Post subject:

And the CNN poll of those who watched the final debate last night was interesting as well. Not so much for who won, but for the margin and the perceptions. It seems clear that people's perceptions of the candidates have settled in, and people are seeing/hearing what they expect. I thought last night's debate was, arguably, closer than the first two, but poll respondents saw it they same way they saw the others--and they reacted to the candidates in the same way, perceiving Sen. Obama to be the cool, analytical candidate and Sen. McCain to be the negative aggressor. Hard to see what could change any of this over the last 19 days.